\mathfrak{Michael Betancourt} Add us as a preferred source on Google
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Make a deal with \mathfrak{Michael Betancourt}
🔒 Paid proposals held safely in escrow — released only when the work's approved.
Followers
424
Account age
3 yrs
💰 Suggested sponsorship rate
$40 – $65 / sponsored post
Estimated from audience size & typical reach — every deal is negotiable and held in SocialDB escrow.
🎁 Free analysisfor \mathfrak{Michael Betancourt}
📊 Post engagement
2
Avg engagement / post
0.5%
Engagement vs followers
Nov 2022
On Mastodon since
🔥 Top post: Remember xkcd 1132, https://xkcd.com/1132/? Prompted by some re · 2 likes + reposts
📊 Activity & format
Posting cadence
1.3 / week
A lower-frequency account — each post lands with more weight.
Content mix
Mostly text
Recent: 12 text · 0 image · 0 video.
Follower / following
12×
Follows 35 back. A strong ratio — an audience that follows them, not a follow-for-follow network.
Recent posts
View on Mastodon ↗
Friendly reminder that everyone is welcome to join the probabilistic modeling Discord server to discuss all things probabilistic modeling, https://www.patreon.com/betanalpha/posts/generative-88674175.
As always, a huge thanks to my supporters over on patreon dot com, https://www.patreon.com/c/betanalpha, who make freely available work like this feasible. Incidentally, covector+ supporters also have access to a 2.5 hour video review of …
Unlike most of my public case studies, this piece builds up the analysis in Python instead of R.
That said, the modeling approach is the same: build up to an adequate model iteratively, using retrodictive tension to motivate productive u…
Nothing lasts forever; especially customers. In my latest case study I use survival modeling techniques, including proportional stimuli/hazards by the end, to model customer churn.
HTML: https://betanalpha.github.io/assets/chapters_html/c…
Conditional probability theory defines a formal way to decompose probability distributions across partitions, with a particular focus on partitions implicitly defined by the level sets of a function.
When the cells of the partition are non…
Chapter 1 -
HTML: https://betanalpha.github.io/assets/chapters_html/conditional_probability_theory.html#conclusion
PDF:
https://betanalpha.github.io/assets/chapters_pdf/conditional_probability_theory.pdf
Chapter 2 -
HTML: https://betana…
I've been updating my recent probability theory chapters, all of which can be found at https://betanalpha.github.io/writing#part1.
The biggest changes have been to my conditional probability theory material, which has been expanded into tw…
On practical asymptotics, https://www.patreon.com/betanalpha/posts/on-practical-161108640.
Just dropped a new case study studying customer churn (in Python!) for my covector+ supporters over on patreon dot com, https://www.patreon.com/c/betanalpha ...
Wednesday, June 3rd at 1:30 PM EDT! Statistics office hours, https://www.patreon.com/posts/spring-has-hours-157652562! I will take all statistics questions; most answers will come down to (a) model something or (b) apply Bayes' Theorem a…
Alt: Do or do not, there is no do operator.
🐘 Community & instance
Home server
fediscience.org
Their home server on the fediverse — the instance a creator picks signals the community they belong to.
On Mastodon since
Nov 2022
Joined in the Twitter-exodus wave of late 2022 — part of the migration that made Mastodon a real destination.
💡 Facts
🗓️Joined Mastodon in 2022 — 3 years ago.
👁️Averages 2 views per post.
📤Posts about 1.3× per week.
🕵️ Fake follower check
Estimated43/100
Fair
Credibility score
73%
Mixed
Real audience
Medium
Fake-follower risk
High
Data confidence
- Est. 73% real, active audience · Medium fake-follower risk.
- Low engagement (~0.5% of followers engage each post) — a sign of an inflated or inactive audience.
- Established account (3+ years old).
Heuristic estimate from engagement, follower ratios, account age & growth — a screening signal, not a guarantee.
About
Once and future physicist masquerading as a statistician. Reluctant geometer. Stan developer. I'm not mad that you ignore divergent transitions, I'm just disappointed. He/him.
🔀 Audience overlap
EstimatedEstimated shared audience with similar creators — useful for avoiding overlap (or doubling down) when planning a campaign.
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Frequently asked questions
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\mathfrak{Michael Betancourt} has 424 followers on Mastodon.
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