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Germany's notorious far-right party, the AfD, just won a major regional election, and many are calling it a turning point: "It was the AFD's best ever result, and more Germans support the party today than ever before. But how did we get here? Well, many Germans are rightfully upset about things in their country, especially when it comes to the economy. The economy has seen almost no growth over the past decade.."

I don't care what that unemployment rate says. It's not good right now: @keds_economist: "The length of unemployment, not just how many people are unemployed, but how long they've been unemployed and the share that have been looking for six months or more. Both of those numbers are way too high to call the labor market good. And they've been going in the wrong direction for a while. It's for people who are unemployed, it's taken a long time to find a job..."

.@tylercowen on how AI is disrupting career paths: "It's how disoriented people feel. The notion that you cannot say to your kid or grandkid, here's what you should do for a living, here's how you prepare for it, here's a more or less guaranteed path to success if you're smart and you work hard. People like those assurances. I don't think they exist in the same way they used to. There could be someone else equipped with AI or an AI-equipped firm that could out-compete you."

.@tylercowen on AIs biggest winners and losers: "I think the biggest losers will be parts of the upper, upper middle class, as I call them. Now, I love the upper, upper middle class. It's the professionals who do intellectual work, and those people are not going to starve. They may have much lower status. They may earn much less. Their lives might be worse. I think big winners will be teenagers, very small companies, people who master AI..."

@profgalloway on the college drop-off experience: "Our life gets smaller, so theirs can get bigger. You're a tide pool of emotions because everything just sort of hits you all at once. And there was all these things you were going to do that you didn't get a chance to do. You know, I thought, oh, I got to take my son to Alaska. I want to buy a car and restore with him. And I want to take him to Latin America...."

Around the world, bond markets are having their worst stretch in years: "Japan's 10-year yield hit 3% for the first time in three decades. Germany's is at its highest since 2011. France's is at its highest since 2008. British 30-year borrowing costs are back at levels last seen in the 1990s. And the U.S. 30-year yield recently hit its highest level since before the financial crisis. Prediction markets is now a 77% chance of a rate hike this year..."

The bond market has had enough with the President: "Turns out if you drive up inflation with tariffs that ended up just being returned to corporations and if you double that inflation with another forever war that just so happens to choke off a fifth of global oil supplies and if you rack up $2 trillion in annual deficits and explode our national debt to $40 trillion..."

Are frontier labs acknowledging that model capabilities are beginning to outpace human oversight: @alexeheath: "How the model actually escaped and hacked Hugging Face. It's remarkable. It's the first incident of this happening. OpenAI didn't have the safeguards in place. They didn't foresee what would happen. I talked to the chief scientist and head of research and a bunch of people, head of alignment about this."

Trump is underwater: @ianbremmer: "Trump is badly underwater on the economy. He's badly underwater on inflation. He's badly underwater in Iran." Ed: "Midterms are coming up. One of the most important topics is affordability, i.e. inflation. And inflation at this point seems to be largely a function of energy prices and therefore what is happening in Iran right now. Do you see prices continuing to go up? Is that one of the—" @ianbremmer: "Yep. Yep. Trump will say this is all fake news..."

Reviewing the landmark $17b Meta settlement: "Meta agreed to pay more than $17 billion in penalties after it was sued by multiple states" "For two decades, people have been clamoring for regulation or oversight or some accountability for big tech, especially with respect to social media and children. Section 230 and lack of government action, particularly by the U.S. Congress, has effectively allowed these companies to go by untouched..."

@profgalloway on why the U.S. will bomb Iran. This clips is from todays episode 'Why Big Tech Is Losing to Boring Stocks' out now.