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New paper is out!
We identified the worst crop shock every country experienced since 1961: the global average was −29%, with Botswana even losing 80% in a single year. Climate—especially drought—was the leading cause, although conflict is also a major contributor to crop failures. We can also see that the frequency of climate-driven shocks has doubled since the 1960s.
You can find the whole paper
18 views
What happens to Europe if the AMOC collapses? The potential for much colder winters, loss of a significant part of maize and wheat agriculture, UK farmland reverting to grassland. The IPCC's confidence that this won't happen this century has decreased.
In my next post I dig into the mechanism, why everybody is suddenly talking about it, how AMOC interacts with other tipping points, and how it migh
6 views
Take a guess at how many civil protection bunkers currently exist in working condition in Germany. See the first comment for the answer.
The reason I'm asking is that I wrote a summary on the state of civil protection bunkers in Germany, which you can find here: https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/the-end-of-the-fallout-bunker
Based on official documents from the last German government, I giv
6 views
New post about the state of research around nuclear war and nuclear winter, with a focus on the food system.
This one's a bit different, as it was originally an invited contribution to the United Nations Independent Scientific Panel on the Effects of Nuclear War. I also wanted to share it publicly, because I think there just aren't that many summaries of the state of nuclear winter research out t
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🔥 Top post: New paper is out! We identified the worst crop shock every count · 28 likes + reposts
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New paper is out!
We identified the worst crop shock every country experienced since 1961: the global average was −29%, with Botswana even losing 80% in a single year. Climate—especially drought—was the leading cause, although conflict is also a major contributor to crop failure…
You might remember the warnings about the ozone hole, about skin cancer and eye damage on a huge scale. You don't hear about it anymore because it largely worked. Almost all ozone depleting substances have been phased out and the ozone lay…
What happens to Europe if the AMOC collapses? The potential for much colder winters, loss of a significant part of maize and wheat agriculture, UK farmland reverting to grassland. The IPCC's confidence that this won't happen this century h…
You are likely familiar with visions of doom.
When I look at the news, at blog posts, at conference abstracts, all everyone ever talks about is some shade of the world ending. And I would not even necessarily disagree with them. Many thing…
Nuclear war is horrible and I hope it never happens. Yet, there are only a few countries that actually have nuclear weapons and the power to use them is concentrated in just a few individuals. This means the vast majority of the global pop…
Exactly zero civil protection bunkers are in a working condition right now.
Take a guess at how many civil protection bunkers currently exist in working condition in Germany. See the first comment for the answer.
The reason I'm asking is that I wrote a summary on the state of civil protection bunkers in Germany, w…
New update post for my living literature review on societal collapse: https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/april-2026-updates
This means I go back to the old posts and add new papers I found, to make sure that everything stays as up to…
New preprint!
We reviewed global catastrophic risks: nuclear war, volcanic eruptions, asteroid impacts, cyberattacks, EMP, geomagnetic storms, and pandemics. Which places on Earth are most resilient?
The short answer: nowhere is safe from …
New preprint!
Global inequality is on the rise, and so is global catastrophic risk. These two problems are not independent: inequality drives societal instability and increases catastrophic risk. We show this by drawing on historical and e…
Who actually shapes global risk?
One common answer is to focus on individual apocalyptic actors, like terrorists aiming to end the world. But are these groups really what we should be on the lookout for most? Or should we not also conside…
New post about the state of research around nuclear war and nuclear winter, with a focus on the food system.
This one's a bit different, as it was originally an invited contribution to the United Nations Independent Scientific Panel on th…
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