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Thoughts on tomorrow's BLS jobs report:
1/ Biggest thing on my mind: the establishment / household survey gap, which has shown no signs of going away. These are telling radically different stories about the labor market. The establishment survey shows a labor market that's flat out booming...
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4/ Last thing is my favorite weathervane in the report: temp agency employment. It's been shrinking the last three months. Historically this is not a great sign for where the labor market is headed.
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2/ ... and the household survey shows a labor market that slowed dramatically in the spring, and may even be cooling a little. (Not recessionary though!)
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3/ 2nd-most top of mind is wage growth. People freaked out about the inflationary implications of the sharp Nov speak - does it stick, or was it a fluke? (More broadly: recent inflation data should make us at least a little more skeptical about the wage-price linkage)
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🔥 Top post: Thoughts on tomorrow's BLS jobs report: 1/ Biggest thing on my m · 4 likes + reposts
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Thoughts on tomorrow's BLS jobs report:
1/ Biggest thing on my mind: the establishment / household survey gap, which has shown no signs of going away. These are telling radically different stories about the labor market. The establishment survey shows a labor market that's flat …
4/ Last thing is my favorite weathervane in the report: temp agency employment. It's been shrinking the last three months. Historically this is not a great sign for where the labor market is headed.
3/ 2nd-most top of mind is wage growth. People freaked out about the inflationary implications of the sharp Nov speak - does it stick, or was it a fluke? (More broadly: recent inflation data should make us at least a little more skeptical …
2/ ... and the household survey shows a labor market that slowed dramatically in the spring, and may even be cooling a little. (Not recessionary though!)
4/ That industry split probably explains metro area performance. Tech-heavy regions are underperforming the rest of the country, including places that were booming in 2021 (Austin, Miami). Whereas Philly and DC are outperforming the rest …
3/ Regarding industries, 13 of 19 saw increases during December. In November just 2! Hiring is down almost everywhere since April, but a big gap between sectors like education, government, health care (resilient) and tech, professional ser…
2/ Interestingly, we saw a very slight increase in our US members’ confidence in finding/holding a job (grey line) toward the latter half of December. I’m not sure if this is a leading or concurrent indicator (i.e. should we expect furthe…
December @LinkedIn Hiring Rate update!
1/ Hiring rose by 1.1% M/M (SA) in December, the first monthly increase since August. Hiring is still down 17.3% since the spring and, if I had to predict the trend, will move slowly downward in early…
2/ ...Inflation on these type of capital goods has moderated a lot, but not enough to offset the decline in nominal spending. So inflation-adjusted core capital goods orders are contracting again, as they did in the first half of 2022.
1/ I missed this while I was out, but it seems like growth of nominal spending on capital goods is grinding to a halt...
3/ My colleague Kory Kantenga has begun nowcasting JOLTS using @linkedin data: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/kory-kantenga-ph-d-5729a07_linkedin-jobopenings-egdata-activity-7016152966160080896-L_Ug?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_deskt…
2/ We saw our US members’ confidence in finding/holding a job decline a little in late October but no further deterioration since then https://econtwitter.net/@econberger/109552681125969186
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